How do I forecast depletions?
The short answer: Start from your recent monthly depletions and clean out one-time spikes like opening orders and stockouts. Then adjust for seasonality and new accounts you actually expect. Build a low, base and high case instead of one number, and check it against actuals every month.
Start with a clean baseline
Use complete months in consistent units. Flag anything that won't repeat: big opening orders, months you were out of stock, returns, one-time promotions. Leave them in and your baseline is off from the start.
Add what you know
Seasonality, new territories, launches, and placements you've actually got commitments for. Keep confirmed business separate from hoped-for business.
Build three cases
- Base: current accounts keep ordering about like they have been
- Low: reorders slow down
- High: the specific new placements you expect come through on time
For example, a recent baseline of 100 cases a month plus 10 cases from confirmed new placements gives you a base case of 110, before seasonal adjustments. That's a planning number, not a promise.
Check it every month
When a month closes, compare it to the forecast. Was the miss about timing, accounts, supply or a bad assumption? Fix the next month's number rather than defending the old one.
Know what you're forecasting
A depletion forecast predicts what your distributor sells to accounts. It isn't the same as your shipments to the distributor or what consumers buy. Distributor inventory sits between those and shifts the timing.